{"id":93963,"date":"2025-05-19T09:57:47","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T13:57:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/economic-recalibration-in-progress\/"},"modified":"2025-05-19T09:58:57","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T13:58:57","slug":"economic-recalibration-in-progress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/economic-recalibration-in-progress\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Recalibration in Progress"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week, I wrote: \u201cContrary to Goldman Sachs, which gave a 45% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, while JPMorgan and Polymarket.com<\/a> were even more bearish, at 65% and 60% respectively, I reduced my own subjective odds of a recession from 50% to 35%. Recessions usually do not happen when the yield curve is not inverted (10s minus 2s is 50 bps); when the energy bill as a % of N-GDP is as low as it is presently (2.1%); when the increase is the money supply is accelerating (3.7% to 5.8%); when the swap market is predicting a forthcoming reduction in the policy rate of about 60 bps; and when the dollar becomes competitive, the DXY being down 5.0% y\/y.\u201d<\/p>\n

A Macro Market View by Hubert Marleau\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

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L’infolettre Palos Perspective est un aper\u00e7u hebdomadaire de la situation macro\u00e9conomique disponible uniquement en anglais. Si vous avez des questions sur l’infolettre ou des demandes g\u00e9n\u00e9rales sur Palos, veuillez nous contacter \u00e0 <\/i>info@palos.ca<\/i><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

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Last week, I wrote: \u201cContrary to Goldman Sachs, which gave a 45% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, while JPMorgan and Polymarket.com were even more bearish, at 65% and 60% respectively, I reduced my own subjective odds of a recession from 50% to 35%. Recessions usually do not happen when the yield …<\/p>\n

Economic Recalibration in Progress<\/span> Lire la suite\u00a0\u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":93959,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[36],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93963"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93963\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/funds.palos.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}