Last week, I listed 10 factors that the bulls saw that explained why POTUS blinked and pivoted. I wrote: “I’m not in the know, and therefore incapable, of putting any tariff numbers on what we are going to end up with. What it does look like, however, is that Trump is executing a tariff-reversal in stages, amid the harsh reaction of the financial markets, broad condemnation by business, and sharp rebuke from the rest of the world. Finally, listening to economic reality, heeding to the polls, the verdicts of David Ricardo and Adam Smith, and realising that US diplomatic sway is rapidly ebbing, my bet is that Trump will settle for a 10% tariff rate across the board and an extra 25% tariff rate on a few specific industries that are judged militarily strategic.’’
A Macro Market View by Hubert Marleau
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