After a barrage of insults from Trump, Jerome Powell said: “We haven’t been through a situation like this, and I think we have to be humble about our ability to forecast it.” Personally, I’m confident to say that if it weren’t for: the probable inflationary repercussions of Trump’s tariffs, whose present average effective rate is 15.8% and 6 times higher than they were; the fallout in foreign demand for US Treasuries (foreigners sold $41 billion worth of Treasuries in May alone); and the latest disruptive 20% surge in oil prices with their side effects on the relative exchange value of the dollar, rate cuts would be in order…
A Macro Market View by Hubert Marleau
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