Issue 19: The Stock Market Has Crossed the Rubicon

Will there be a recession? The short answer is yes, but when? It’s a matter of time. Indeed, a yield-curve-model-based model from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York puts the odds of a recession over the year at 71%, the yield curve (2’s – 10’s) having now been invested for almost 250 days.

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By Hubert Marleau

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