Last week, I wrote: “The Fed may get an opening because the inflation rate and the employment growth is receding at a slow enough pace that a veritable Lazarus moment for the left-for-dead ‘soft landing’ story is therefore still alive.” I added that a careful historical analysis suggested that the Fed had had a much more encouraging record than the media claims. In fact, it had managed to get reduced inflation without causing a deep recession in 6 out of 11 cases. Unfortunately, achieving this is no small feat. The Bureau Labour of Statistics (BLS) proved it. The CPI shows that inflation eased only moderately in September to a yearly increase of 8.2%, staying stubbornly high and more than expected. Really?
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By Hubert Marleau
By Hubert Marleau