Issue 44 – Disinflation is the True Narrative

According to the November Survey of Consumer Expectations, conducted by the NY Fed, median inflation expectations declined to 3.4% at the one-year-ahead horizon, the lowest reading of the series since April 2021.The Adobe Digital Price Index, too, was 3.64% lower in November than the prior months, with the annual inflation rate at -6.43%. Unsurprisingly, and with the help of falling gas prices, headline CPI ticked down to 3.1% y/y, with the 3-and 6-month annualised rate 1.6% and 2.8% respectively; while headline and core inflation rates excluding shelter were only 1.4% and 2.1% y/y, respectively through November. US producer prices were flat from October, up just 0.9 y/y, and prices for imported goods down 0.4% m/m, 6.0% y/y, making the trajectory for the disinflation narrative increasingly credible.

Follow us on: LinkedIn

By Hubert Marleau

Continue Reading in PDF