The Palos Perspective: The Last Mile Is Long

It is now clear that the pace of disinflation has stalled, with the headline and core CPI still up 3.5% and 3.8% respectively year-on-year in March. Most of the increase came exclusively from the service category in what appears to be at face value a discontinuing trend of disinflation. Indeed, inflation concerns have sprung back because the numbers help to validate that the hotter-than anticipated readings in January and February did reflect the growing thinking that 3% inflation is the best number we can hope for. In a March survey, the NY Fed’s Center for Macroeconomic data showed that one-year ahead inflation expectations had remained unchanged at 3.0% for a third consecutive month. (Incidentally, a recent NFIB survey conducted in April showed that 25% of the firms who responded cited inflation as their single most important problem, up from 20% earlier in the year.)

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A Macro Market View by Hubert Marleau 

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