The polymarket odds of tariffs surviving the ruling in their current form plunged to less than 30% this week, with traders now pricing in a clear chance that the Supreme Court could strike down or sharply limit Trump’s authority in this domain and return the matter to Congress. On Wednesday, the Court heard oral arguments on the case, challenging the broad array of his global tariffs, as it questioned whether he had the authority to impose them under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and sougth justification for the breadth of his executive trade powers.
A Macro Market View by Hubert Marleau
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